The Financial Stress Index, which is compiled by the Bank of Korea, displays short-term financial conditions numerically. It showed a stable tax at 0.0 in June last year, but after returning to an upward trend from the second half of the year, the volatility of financial markets expanded due to the Ukrainian war and the normalization of monetary policy of major countries in February this year, and it continued to rise. There is. Currently it is 7.4, which is close to the caution step (8.0) threshold. It reflects the fact that the Korean economy is surrounded by uncertain financial conditions at home and abroad. Grab inflation ... America with bigger strides With peace talks between Russia and Ukraine slumping, the war is in a protracted mode, with the United States embarking on a plan to deal with the possibility of using Russian weapons of mass destruction. In a recent report, the International Financial Center said, "Financial markets are expected to remain in a high volatility phase and prolong high inflation, reflecting this, and behind the curve of monetary policy in major countries. ) Continues to be concerned about the economic impact it brings. "
The austerity-strengthening mode of major countries such as the United States is intertwined with concerns about the elimination of inflation, such as the rise in intrinsic prices due to the prolonged war. Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve System (Ren), suggested a so-called big step (raising the base interest rate by more than 0.5%) after starting the interest rate hike cycle at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the 16th. Of course, the directors of Ren 준 responded to this by going to the New York Investment Bank. James Bourde St. Louis Jan argued that the governor had to raise the policy rate to the 3% range. Citi Bank said it could raise 0.75 percentage points if inflation intensifies with the FOMC raising 0.5 percentage points four times in a row. Goldman Sachs predicted that the final end of this interest rate hike cycle would be 3.0-3.25%. This is a level that exceeds 1.9% at the end of this year and 2.8% at the end of next year, which is expected by the year-end of this month through the viscosity table (dot plot). The atmosphere of strengthening austerity in the United States has been relieved to raise interest rates three times since August last year, and has puzzled the Korean bank, which had been taking a break from the freeze at the Kim Tong Committee last month.
We expected the level to be 1.75% through raising the interest rate twice this year, because the situation will come to reverse the interest rate of 1 percentage point or more in the United States. In this case, capital can rapidly escape from South Korea according to the interest rate differential. At the end of this year, the domestic bond market seems to have to prepare for a domestic standard interest rate of up to 2.25%. Major countries austerity urgent ... South Korea is relaxed The atmosphere of austerity has reversed to the long-term and short-term interest rate differentials of government bond interest rates, and there are concerns about economic stagnation. On the 23rd (local time), the rate of return on loans with a 10-year maturity, which acts as a benchmark for the global financial markets, fell 0.06 percentage points to 2.32%, reversing to the rate of return on loans with a maturity of 7 years (2.37%). .. On the 22nd of the previous day, the rate of return on government bonds with a maturity of 5 years was also reversed. On the 28th, the 5-year rate (2.64%) exceeded the 30-year rate of return (2.63%) for the first time in 16 years. Generally, the evaluation of long-term and short-term interest rate spreads is made by the difference between the 10-year and 2-year loans of the Ministry of Finance, but the interest rate between the 20,000-term section has not yet shown a reversal phenomenon.
However, the gap between the inside and outside of 0.8 points at the end of last year was narrowed earlier this year, and it was narrowed down to the level of 02 points. It seems that the reason why the bond market "seizures" is that the past long-term and short-term interest rates have been reversed and the economic stagnation has appeared around 18 months. In March, announced by the University of Michigan last week, the US consumer sentiment index reached its lowest level in more than 11 years due to concerns about war and inflation, and is helping to signal a sharp downturn in the economy. The Governor of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Giorgiva, said the impact of the Ukrainian War could lower the outlook for global economic growth, which is scheduled to be released in April, below the initial forecast. The Federal Bank of Dallas warned in a recent report that it would be difficult to avoid a global economic downturn unless Russian crude oil exports resume later this year. Against this backdrop, the Korean Financial Research Institute warned on the 27th in a report on "Balance of Payments Imbalances Due to the Ukrainian War" that if crude oil prices remain at $ 110 per barrel, the trade balance will decrease by $ 40.5 billion. In addition to the rise in value, the depreciation of the yen has contributed to the export front, which has supported the Korean economy.
This is because in industries such as petrochemicals, steel, machinery, and automobiles, which have a high degree of export competition with Japan, price competition during the prolonged period of Enza can be pushed. On the 28th (local time), the yen's exchange rate against the dollar recorded 125 yen in the foreign exchange market in New York, the highest in seven years since 2015 (the yen's appreciation fell). Prior to this, the won-yen fiscal exchange rate fell 1,000 won per 100 yen for the first time in three years and three months in the domestic foreign exchange market on that day. Despite the Ukrainian war, the yen, which is a safe asset, crashed as a result of the combined effects of the differentiation of the monetary policy between the United States and Japan and the expectation that the Japanese government would implement additional economic stimulus measures.
Currently, the movement of the extraordinary 50 trillion won memorial service of domestic old and new powers that is occurring during the transitional period of the transition of power is a relaxed atmosphere unlike the urgent atmosphere of austerity of major countries. The candidate for Lee Chang, who was appointed as the governor of the Bank of Korea, said last week that he was wary of uncertainties, inflation, and the simultaneous expansion of economic risks, rather than the original monetary policy. It has been pointed out that it is interpreted as focusing on the response to the current city, and is compared with the tense response to inflation in major countries. "The candidate's future monetary policy is thought to reflect the new government's willingness to grow in terms of policy mix," said Yuanta Securities Researcher. I don't think the speed is fast. "
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